Heatwaves will reoccur for the next FOUR years predict scientists

A dramatic sunrise looking east towards the mining town of Barberton from the hill village and escarpment of Kaapsehoop in Mpumalanga Province South Africa

A dramatic sunrise looking east towards the mining town of Barberton from the hill village and escarpment of Kaapsehoop in Mpumalanga Province South Africa

The next four years will be "anomalously warm" as temperatures increase on top of the global warming trend, researchers have warned.

The variations of the annual average temperature depend on the climate change caused by the human activities but also on the intrinsic variability of the climate, which makes the forecasts from one year to the other all the more hard.

The new technique is known as Procast (Probabilistic forecast) and it takes the usually irrational and chaotic behaviour of Earth's weather systems and moves to simplify them in order to predict a pattern.

Both average ground and sea surface temperatures could be abnormally high, which may in turn increase the likelihood of tropical storms.

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"We showed that this natural variability (of the climate) is set to be in a "warm phase" for the next four years".

The new forecasting system, developed by researchers at Southampton University, France's National Centre for Scientific Research and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological... The sweltering hot summer of 2018 has already put it into this bracket. And despite the commitments of the signatory states of the 2015 Paris agreement to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is heading towards a world at + 3 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, with its lot announced droughts, hurricanes or areas submerged by water.

In future research, Sevellec hopes to pinpoint the climate phenomena he is studying on a regional scale, as the journal's current predictions consider global trends.

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