Agri, manufacturing sectors to push GDP growth to 7.2% in 2018-19

The Gross Domestic Product had expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 8.2 per cent in 2015-16

The Gross Domestic Product had expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 8.2 per cent in 2015-16

GDP growth estimated at 7.25% during 2018-19: The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) during 2018-19 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2017-18, the ANI reported.

"Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is anticipated to grow at 7% in the current fiscal as against 6.5% in 2017-18", it said.

"Very healthy advance GDP growth numbers for 2018-19..."

The CSO estimate is, however, a bit lower than 7.4% growth projected by the Reserve Bank for the current fiscal.

India's $2.7 trillion economy is headed for a slowdown ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections due by May, with a federal statistics body projecting an overall economic growth of 7.2% for the year ending 31 March. Growth had declined to a below-expectation 7.1% in the second quarter from 8.2% in the first quarter.

"Especially gratifying, impressive and promising is the growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)".

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a barometer of investment, at current prices is estimated at Rs 55.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 as against Rs 47.79 lakh crore in 2017-18. The RBI had also noted a nascent recovery in investment, though some independent experts are not convinced. "There could be a downward revision here and we expect the rate to be 29%".

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On the expenditure side, the first Advance Estimate suggests a moderation in both private and government consumption expenditure.

India's annual economic growth surged to a more than two-year high of 8.2 per cent in the three months through June, powered by a sharp jump in growth in manufacturing, agriculture, construction sectors. Farm sector growth is projected at 3.8%, slightly ahead of 3.4% a year ago.

Slow agricultural growth and the resultant stress in the rural economy has become a major pre-election issue.

While the shortfall in goods and services tax (GST) collections is expected to be partly met by the higher-than budgeted growth in direct tax collections, it is unlikely to make up for it. Data released by the finance ministry on Monday showed net direct tax collections till December had touched 64.7% of the full-year target of ₹11.5 trillion, growing at 13.6%.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings Ltd, said these numbers must be read with caution as the methodology clearly says that these are extrapolations of existing data on various sectors, which could range from six to eight months. This is in keeping with the anecdotal evidence on a fall in farm output prices.

A statement released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2018-19 is likely to attain a level of Rs 139.52 lakh crore against the "Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2017-18" of Rs 130.11 lakh crore. "Hotel and communication services are growing way below their historical averages partly reflecting the stress in the banking and telecom sectors", he said.

At current prices, GDP is seen growing 12.3% to?188.41 lakh crore. How did the first advance estimates for the last fiscal year 2017-18 compare with the revised numbers for that year now?

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