Trump touts economy but payroll tax discussion reveals recession fears

Trump touts economy but payroll tax discussion reveals recession fears

Trump touts economy but payroll tax discussion reveals recession fears

"We're, right now, the No. 1 country anywhere in the world by far as an economy", Trump told press during a White House meeting with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.

Target number one is the Federal Reserve, which Trump, in one of his many breaks with convention, has been browbeating for months over its reluctance to cut interest rates. Yet he also suggested those actions aren't necessary. "Whether or not we do it now or not is-it's not being done because of recession", he said.

Trump discusses the US economy ahead of meeting with Romanian president at the White House.

Lighthizer then directly contradicted Trump, saying: "An MOU is a contract". The National Association of Business Economics said Monday that 98 percent of member economists responding to its latest Economic Policy Survey believe a recession will come after 2019.

Some economists have pointed to Trump's trade war with China as among the factors responsible for the economic instability, placing pressure on him to reach a trade deal with Beijing.

One of the signs pointing to a forthcoming recession is the recent yield curve inversion - yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds dipping below the yields on shorter-term bonds.

"My life would be a lot easier if I hadn't taken China on", Trump said.

Economic trends tend to predict election outcomes, and recessions can be radioactive for the party in power. For Trump, striking that balance may be even more hard than for most.

"If the Fed would do its job, we'd have a tremendous burst of growth", Trump said.

The payroll tax cut, Trump said, "is something that we think about" in addition to other possible cuts to taxes on stock sales. He downplayed any idea that these thoughts indicate a weakening economy and said, "I'm looking at that all the time anyway". "The fact is somebody had to take China on". And reports that the White House is considering temporary stimulus measures could fuel such economic pessimism.

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The president's renewed interest in another round of tax cuts comes after his previous pledge, in the weeks just before the 2018 midterm elections, to pursue a 10 percent tax cut for the middle class.

There has been no clarity on how such a move would be carried out since China does not pay tariffs directly to the U.S. Treasury.

The tax cut speculation comes just a week after the USA bond yield curve inverted for the first time in more than a decade - a development that's often considered by experts to be a harbinger of economic strife.

Third, it's not accurate to call a payroll tax cut a "middle-class" tax cut.

But if Congress and successive presidents routinely cut the Social Security payroll tax, this will inevitably raise questions about whether general revenues are sufficient to offset the enormous loss of funds for Social Security and whether the program itself must be cut to make up the difference. The Constitution mandates that tax legislation originate in the House, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi will refuse to consider bills that could buoy the re-election chances of the president and his party.

A technical recession - the most widely discussed form of recession - is defined as being two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Trump tells WH pool he could index capital gains to inflation - effectively a huge tax cut, primarily befalling the wealthy - through executive action, without going through Congress.

The Trump administration has been mulling indexing capital gains to inflation through executive action since previous year, despite warnings the move may be illegal.

Such an action would also do little to stave off a potential slowdown or curry favour with voters.

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