Trump promises report on his finances before election

Donald Trump

Donald Trump

Some of the tweets involve attacking China in the USA trade war or Federal Reserve on the interest rates.

JPMorgan Chase has created a special index to track how President Donald Trump's tweets impact interest rates and other economic indicators.

The JP Morgan report showed that Trump - or aides - have tweeted over 10,000 times from his account since his inauguration, with an uptick in the past year, becoming even more intense during the last few months. "Market-moving tweets exhibit distinct statistical properties, primarily addressing trade and, more recently, monetary policy".

Trump's tweets move markets, particularly regarding the trade war, which whipsaws indices back and forth with seemingly every word uttered, positive and negative.

Since his inauguration in 2017, Trump has tweeted over 10,000 times to his 64.1 million followers.

U.S. President Donald Trump is promising to release a new financial report of his personal holdings to the public before the 2020 election, though it is unclear how much detail will be revealed. That means more opportunities for tweets that move markets, although only some of them actually do.

There were some keywords which appeared more frequently in the volatility-inducing tweets by Mr Trump.

"By this metric, "market-moving tweets" have ballooned in frequency this August", the report said.

'Mystery' hog disease is African Swine Fever-Department of Agriculture
Some experts have said the current spread of swine fever is the largest known animal disease outbreak in history. In June, the African swine fever gene was detected by authorities in confiscated canned goods from Hong Kong.

On the flipside, markets surged in mid-June, when Mr Trump tweeted that he "had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China".

Out of the 4,000 non-retweet messages from 2018 to date during market hours, 146 have moved the markets as per JP Morgan.

They defined "market-moving" as tweets that were "immediately followed by a substantial move" in U.S. bond yields.

According to the bank, the index is no gimmick and there is indeed a "measurable fraction" of implied volatility observable through interest rate derivatives, especially those linked to shorter-term rates of two to five years.

While JP Morgan's research was limited to the United States bond market, the bank said it is "easily transferable" to stock and currency markets.

Another interesting thing to note from the report is most of the tweets by Trump come in the afternoon between 12:00 pm to 2:00 pm with 1:00 pm tweet three times more likely. Days with fewer presidential tweets improve the yields of government bonds on average five basis points.

The U.S. dollar - whose recent strength against major currencies has drawn much of the president's ire - weakening against the euro and the Japanese yen is the most pronounced reaction to the president's tweets about the greenback, analysts at Citigroup said in a Friday note.

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