GDP Growth Moderates To 6.6% Pulling Down Economic Expansion In FY19

GDP Growth Slows To 6.6% In December Quarter

GDP Growth Slows To 6.6% In December Quarter

India's economic growth slowed to a 5-quarter low of 6.6 percent in the October-December period of this fiscal, according to government data released on Thursday.

Data showed that the GDP growth slowed for the third consecutive quarter in the quarter ended December 2018 to 6.6% - a six-quarter low - from 7% in the second quarter and 8% in the first quarter of this financial year.

The growth in GDP during 2018-19 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2017- 18, the Ministry of Statistics said. The growth estimate has been lowered to 7 per cent in 2018-19 from 7.2 per cent released earlier, said Central Statistics Office. A slowdown in GDP growth momentum supported the central bank's dovish turn earlier this month when it cut key interest rates and changed its policy stance to "neutral" to boost expansion after a sharp fall in inflation.

In gross value added (GVA) terms, the economy grew at 6.3 percent in the third quarter of FY19. For the next financial year, the RBI has projected GDP growth to be in the range of 7.2-7.4 per cent for the first half, and 7.5 per cent in the third quarter, with risks somewhat to the downside.

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At 7 percent, growth in the Indian economy has fallen to a five-year low. "Based on the revised first three quarters and annual numbers, Ind-Ra's calculation shows that the GDP growth in Q4 has to be 6.5% to attain overall 7.0% growth in FY19".

If we look at the pace of growth between FY19 and FY18 growth, there are visible signs of slower farm and allied activities growth at 2.7 per cent against 5 per cent in FY18.

Core sector growth in January also slowed down to 1.8 per cent against 2.7 per cent on a sequential basis and 6.2 per cent on a yearly basis. The manufacturing sector, too, is estimated to grow at a marginally lower 8.1% compared with the previously predicted 8.3%.

GVA at basic prices for 2018-19 from electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services sector is estimated to grow by 8.0 per cent as compared to growth of 8.6 per cent in 2017- 18.

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