Global Coronavirus Death Toll Could Reach 2.8 Million by Start of 2021

Reuters  Stephen Lam Outbreak of the coronavirus disease in Hayward

Reuters Stephen Lam Outbreak of the coronavirus disease in Hayward

Covid-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the US, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday, "The worst is yet to come".

The death toll in the US, India, and Brazil are expected to be the worst.

It previously projected 317,697 deaths by December 1.

IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19.

In each of the IMHE models, the countries likeliest to lose the most people are India and the United States.

"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000", according to IHME's briefing.

Government policies and relaxation will play an important role in determining whether which case will best suit the situation and how many people will die due to the virus this winter.

"We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States", said Murray in a statement.

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He said everybody had to follow social distancing rules to prevent the spread of infections.

The United Kingdom recorded, Sunday, September 6, almost 3,000 new cases of Covid-19 infection against 1,813 on Saturday, a level unprecedented since the end of May.

The United Kingdom has seen its highest daily total of new coronavirus cases since late May, officials said.

COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the USA, according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.

The population may see a steep rise in cases over the next six to eight weeks with a peak in cases around the end of September.

The group projects the global death toll, which now stands at 869,600, will rise to roughly 2.8 million by January 1.

The design's outlook for the world was much more alarming, with deaths projected to triple to 2.8 million byJan 1, 2021.

Globally, IHME predicts 2.8 million Covid-19 deaths by the end of the year, up from the current 1.9 million, assuming mask-use and other mitigation measures remain unchanged. That would be about 225,000 more COVID-19 deaths. However, some mathematicians and epidemiologists criticized IHME for making predictions too far in the future.

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